The vulnerability of naval bases and the Royal Navy's fleet to unconventional attacks has become a pressing concern, with the potential for cheap, uncrewed weapons to pose a significant threat. This issue demands our attention and a thoughtful examination of the challenges and potential solutions.
The Growing Threat
The recent scrutiny on the security of Royal Navy bases is well-founded. The story of Tobias Ellwood's flight over the aircraft carriers in Portsmouth, while not breaking any rules, highlights a larger issue. It's a wake-up call, a reminder that our assets are not as protected as they should be. The absence of air defense and the lack of a mindset to safeguard our resources are concerning, as echoed by General Richard Shirreff.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the evolution of warfare. The threat is no longer just from traditional military assets but from unconventional, yet highly effective, means. Drones and uncrewed systems present a sudden and unpredictable danger, and their potential to cause damage is a worrying prospect.
Operation Spiderweb and Beyond
Operation Spiderweb, an attack on Russian bomber airfields, demonstrated the vulnerability of fixed, high-value targets. This isn't just a Russian problem; it's a global concern. The use of drones and uncrewed surface vessels by Ukraine against the Black Sea Fleet shows that distance is no longer a guarantee of safety. Harbours, once considered sanctuaries, are now potential battlefields.
Defending against such attacks is challenging. Russia's response, with helicopter patrols and electronic warfare, is an expensive and resource-intensive endeavor. The question arises: Can we sustain such efforts indefinitely?
Covert Intrusions and Maritime Threats
The Spiderweb model has maritime implications. The idea of drones concealed aboard merchant ships, ready to strike naval bases, is a chilling prospect. Screening every container is an impossible task, and the risk of attribution is high. However, the concept of moving weapons covertly within commercial logistics is a proven strategy, and one that states may exploit to avoid open conflict.
The UK has experienced unexplained drone incursions over US bases, and similar incidents are reported across Europe. If these intrusions can persist over sensitive sites, the notion of naval bases being immune is optimistic at best. The shared waters of Portsmouth and Devonport with leisure craft create a complex security scenario, making it difficult to distinguish between innocent contacts and genuine threats.
Hardening the Bases
Historically, the Royal Navy employed boom defense vessels and nets to protect harbours, but these measures are absent today. The nuclear deterrent at HMNB Clyde is an exception, with heavy barriers protecting submarine berths. However, the question remains: What level of protection is adequate for a £3 billion aircraft carrier?
Any existing security measures are classified, but it's reasonable to assume surveillance and electronic warfare defenses are in place. The best defense against a Spiderweb-style attack is intelligence and early detection. The challenge lies in integrating various intelligence sources and developing a comprehensive strategy.
Counter-Drone Solutions and Base Protection
The Royal Navy is aware of the threat and is working on counter-drone solutions. Project TALON and the Atlantic Shield strategy aim to enhance defense against air and surface drones. However, most RN surface ships lack sufficient low-end hard-kill systems. The RAF, on the other hand, has developed a layered counter-UAS capability for airfield protection.
Protecting warships in harbour is a complex task. Sensors and effectors need to be operational around the clock, and the rules of engagement for ambiguous contacts near civilians are challenging. It's a delicate balance between security and the impact on civilian life.
Investing in Naval Estate Security
Project ROYAL OAK, a £26 billion investment in the naval estate, is a step in the right direction. However, there's no public evidence of hardening or active defense measures being part of this program. The name ROYAL OAK carries a certain irony, given the history of HMS Royal Oak, torpedoed while at anchor.
Dispersing the fleet is not a practical solution; it would only increase logistical burdens. The answer lies in making the three principal bases defensible. We must invest in proper base defenses now, rather than waiting for a crisis to force our hand.
A Call to Action
The potential for the fleet to be crippled at its moorings is a real and present danger. History has shown that warships can be destroyed in harbour, and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East serve as a reminder that effective defense requires preparation and layered strategies. We must act now to ensure the security of our naval bases and protect our assets. The threat is evolving, and so must our defenses.
